A stochastic simulation model to determine the sample size of repeated national surveys to document freedom from bovine herpesvirus 1 (BoHV-1) infection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>International trade regulations require that countries document their livestock's sanitary status in general and freedom from specific infective agents in detail provided that import restrictions should be applied. The latter is generally achieved by large national serological surveys and risk assessments. The paper describes the basic structure and application of a generic stochastic model for risk-based sample size calculation of consecutive national surveys to document freedom from contagious disease agents in livestock.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In the model, disease spread during the time period between two consecutive surveys was considered, either from undetected infections within the domestic population or from imported infected animals. The @Risk model consists of the domestic spread in-between two national surveys; the infection of domestic herds from animals imported from countries with a sanitary status comparable to Switzerland or lower sanitary status and the summary sheet which summed up the numbers of resulting infected herds of all infection pathways to derive the pre-survey prevalence in the domestic population. Thereof the pre-survey probability of freedom from infection and required survey sample sizes were calculated. A scenario for detection of infected herds by general surveillance was included optionally.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The model highlights the importance of residual domestic infection spread and characteristics of different import pathways. The sensitivity analysis revealed that number of infected, but undetected domestic herds and the multiplicative between-survey-spread factor were most correlated with the pre-survey probability of freedom from infection and the resulting sample size, respectively. Compared to the deterministic pre-cursor model, the stochastic model was therefore more sensitive to the previous survey's results. Undetected spread of infection in the domestic population between two surveys gained more importance than infection through animals of either import pathway.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The model estimated the pre-survey probability of freedom from infection accurately as was shown in the case of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR). With this model, a generic tool becomes available which can be adapted to changing conditions related to either importing or exporting countries.</p

Rabies post-exposure prophylaxis: A systematic review on abridged vaccination schedules and the effect of changing administration routes during a single course

International audienceRabies is a fatal zoonotic disease preventable through timely and adequate post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) to potentially exposed persons i.e. wound washing and antisepsis, a series of intradermal (ID) or intramuscular (IM) rabies vaccinations, and rabies immunoglobulin in WHO category III exposures. The 2010 WHO position on rabies vaccines recommended PEP schedules requiring up to 5 clinic visits over the course of approximately one month. Abridged schedules with less doses have potential to save costs, increase patient compliance, and thereby improve equitable access to life-saving PEP for at-risk populations. We systematically reviewed new evidence since that considered for the 2010 position paper to evaluate (i) the immunogenicity and effectiveness of PEP schedules of reduced dose and duration; (ii) new evidence on effective PEP protocols for special populations; and (iii) the effect of changing routes of administration (ID or IM) during a single course of PEP. Our search identified a total of 14 relevant studies. The identified studies supported a reduction in dose or duration of rabies PEP schedules. The 1-week, 2-site ID PEP schedule was found to be most advantageous, as it was safe, immunogenic, supported by clinical outcome data and involved the least direct costs (i.e. cost of vaccine) compared to other schedules. To supplement this evidence, as yet unpublished additional data were reviewed to support the strength of the recommendations.Evidence suggests that changes in the rabies vaccine product and/or the route of administration during PEP is possible. Few studies have evaluated PEP schedules in persons with suspect or confirmed rabies exposures. Gaps exist in understanding the safety and immunogenicity of novel PEP schedules in special populations such as infants and immunocompromised individuals. Available data indicate that administering rabies vaccines during pregnancy is safe and effective

An ancestral secretory apparatus in the protozoan parasite Giardia intestinalis

The protozoan parasite Giardia intestinalis belongs to one of the earliest diverged eukaryotic lineages. This is also reflected in a simple intracellular organization, as Giardia lacks common subcellular compartments such as mitochondria, peroxisomes, and apparently also a Golgi apparatus. During encystation, developmentally regulated formation of large secretory compartments containing cyst wall material occurs. Despite the lack of any morphological similarities, these encystation-specific vesicles (ESVs) show several biochemical characteristics of maturing Golgi cisternae. Previous studies suggested that Golgi structure and function are induced only during encystation in Giardia, giving rise to the hypothesis that ESVs, as a Giardia Golgi equivalent, are generated de novo. Alternatively, ESV compartments could be built on the template structure of a cryptic Golgi in trophozoites in response to ER export of cyst wall material during encystation. We addressed this question by defining the molecular framework of the Giardia secretory apparatus using a comparative genomic approach. Analysis of the corresponding transcriptome during growth and encystation revealed surprisingly little stage-specific regulation. A panel of antibodies was generated against selected marker proteins to investigate the developmental dynamics of the endomembrane system. We show evidence that Giardia accommodates the export of large amounts of cyst wall material through re-organization of membrane compartment(s) in trophozoites with biochemical similarities to ESVs. This suggests that ESVs are selectively stabilized Golgi-like compartments in a unique and archetypical secretory system, which arise from a structural template in trophozoites rather than being generated de novo

Invisible caregivers: The ‘hidden lives’ of German university students with care responsibilities

Since university students increasingly face the need to reconcile studying and caring for an older person this study explores the lives, challenges and coping strategies of caregiving students in Germany as well as the ways institutions of higher education can (or already do) support them. The situation of such students was investigated with eight in-depth interviews with caregiving students, which were fully transcribed and analysed with a thematic coding strategy. Results show that caregiving students in tertiary education are a group that experiences unique challenges that differ from those faced by caregivers in later life, working life or caregiving children. They tend to live ‘hidden lives’ as caregivers and face exclusion from a ‘normal’ student life. Findings indicate the importance of raising awareness for the topic among university staff as well as flexibility with regards to regulations in the university context

Modelling to inform prophylaxis regimens to prevent human rabies

International audienceBACKGROUND: The Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE) Working Group on rabies vaccines and immunoglobulins was established in 2016 to develop practical and feasible recommendations for prevention of human rabies. To support the SAGE agenda we developed models to compare the relative costs and potential benefits of rabies prevention strategies.METHODS: We examined Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (PEP) regimens, protocols for administration of Rabies Immunoglobulin (RIG) and inclusion of rabies Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) within the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI). For different PEP regimens, clinic throughputs and consumables for vaccine administration, we evaluated the cost per patient treated, costs to patients and potential to treat more patients given limited vaccine availability.RESULTS: We found that intradermal (ID) vaccination reduces the volume of vaccine used in all settings, is less costly and has potential to mitigate vaccine shortages. Specifically, the abridged 1-week 2-site ID regimen was the most cost-effective PEP regimen, even in settings with low numbers of bite patients presenting to clinics. We found advantages of administering RIG to the wound(s) only, using considerably less product than when the remaining dose is injected intramuscularly distant to the wound(s). We found that PrEP as part of the EPI programme would be substantially more expensive than use of PEP and dog vaccination in prevention of human rabies.CONCLUSIONS: These modeling insights inform WHO recommendations for use of human rabies vaccines and biologicals. Specifically, the 1-week 2-site ID regimen is recommended as it is less costly and treats many more patients when vaccine is in short supply. If available, RIG should be administered at the wound only. PrEP is highly unlikely to be an efficient use of resources and should therefore only be considered in extreme circumstances, where the incidence of rabies exposures is extremely high

Estimating the global burden of endemic canine rabies

Background: Rabies is a notoriously underreported and neglected disease of lowincome countries. This study aims to estimate the public health and economic burden of rabies circulating in domestic dog populations, globally and on a country-by-country basis, allowing an objective assessment of how much this preventable disease costs endemic countries.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Methodology/Principal Findings: We established relationships between rabies mortality and rabies prevention and control measures, which we incorporated into a model framework. We used data derived from extensive literature searches and questionnaires on disease incidence, control interventions and preventative measures within this framework to estimate the disease burden. The burden of rabies impacts on public health sector budgets, local communities and livestock economies, with the highest risk of rabies in the poorest regions of the world. This study estimates that globally canine rabies causes approximately 59,000 (95% Confidence Intervals: 25- 159,000) human deaths, over 3.7 million (95% CIs: 1.6-10.4 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 8.6 billion USD (95% CIs: 2.9-21.5 billion) economic losses annually. The largest component of the economic burden is due to premature death (55%), followed by direct costs of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP, 20%) and lost income whilst seeking PEP (15.5%), with only limited costs to the veterinary sector due to dog vaccination (1.5%), and additional costs to communities from livestock losses (6%).&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Conclusions/Significance: This study demonstrates that investment in dog vaccination, the single most effective way of reducing the disease burden, has been inadequate and that the availability and affordability of PEP needs improving. Collaborative investments by medical and veterinary sectors could dramatically reduce the current large, and unnecessary, burden of rabies on affected communities. Improved surveillance is needed to reduce uncertainty in burden estimates and to monitor the impacts of control efforts.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt

The road to dog rabies control and elimination-what keeps us from moving faster?

Rabies, a vaccine preventable neglected tropical disease, still claims an estimated 35,000–60,000 human lives annually. The international community, with more than 100 endemic countries, has set a global target of 0 human deaths from dog-transmitted rabies by 2030. While it has been proven in several countries and regions that elimination of rabies as a public health problem is feasible and tools are available, rabies deaths globally have not yet been prevented effectively. While there has been extensive rabies research, specific areas of implementation for control and elimination have not been sufficiently addressed. This article highlights some of the commonest perceived barriers for countries to implementing rabies control and elimination programs and discusses possible solutions for sociopolitical, organizational, technical, and resource-linked requirements, following the pillars of the global framework for the elimination of dogmediated human rabies adopted at the global rabies meeting in December 2015.https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health#am2017Microbiology and Plant Patholog

The potential effect of improved provision of rabies post-exposure prophylaxis in Gavi-eligible countries: a modelling study

Background Tens of thousands of people die from dog-mediated rabies annually. Deaths can be prevented through post-exposure prophylaxis for people who have been bitten, and the disease eliminated through dog vaccination. Current post-exposure prophylaxis use saves many lives, but availability remains poor in many rabies-endemic countries due to high costs, poor access, and supply. Methods We developed epidemiological and economic models to investigate the effect of an investment in post-exposure prophylaxis by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We modelled post-exposure prophylaxis use according to the status quo, with improved access using WHO-recommended intradermal vaccination, with and without rabies immunoglobulin, and with and without dog vaccination. We took the health provider perspective, including only direct costs. Findings We predict more than 1 million deaths will occur in the 67 rabies-endemic countries considered from 2020 to 2035, under the status quo. Current post-exposure prophylaxis use prevents approximately 56 000 deaths annually. Expanded access to, and free provision of, post-exposure prophylaxis would prevent an additional 489 000 deaths between 2020 and 2035. Under this switch to efficient intradermal post-exposure prophylaxis regimens, total projected vaccine needs remain similar (about 73 million vials) yet 17·4 million more people are vaccinated, making this an extremely cost-effective method, with costs of US$635 per death averted and$33 per disability-adjusted life-years averted. Scaling up dog vaccination programmes could eliminate dog-mediated rabies over this time period; improved post-exposure prophylaxis access remains cost-effective under this scenario, especially in combination with patient risk assessments to reduce unnecessary post-exposure prophylaxis use. Interpretation Investing in post-exposure vaccines would be an extremely cost-effective intervention that could substantially reduce disease burden and catalyse dog vaccination efforts to eliminate dog-mediated rabies.Additional co-authors: D. H. Ashwath Narayana, M. K. Sudarshan, Athman Mwatondo, Matthew Muturi, Gati Wambura, Glenn T Edosoa, Soa Fy Andriamandimby, Laurence Baril, Abdallah Traoré, Sarah Jayme, Johann Kotzé, Amila Gunesekera, Nakul Chitnis, Jan Hattendorf, Mirjam Laager, Monique Lechenne, Jakob Zinsstag, Joel Changalucha, Zac Mtema, Ahmed Lugelo, Kennedy Lushasi, Onphirul Yurachai, Charlotte Jessica E. Metcalf, Malavika Rajeev, Jesse Blanton, Galileu Barbosa Costa, Nandini Sreenivasan, Ryan Wallace, Deborah Briggs, Louise Taylor, Samuel M Thumbi, Nguyen Thi Thanh Huon

Concepts for risk-based surveillance in the field of veterinary medicine and veterinary public health: Review of current approaches

BACKGROUND: Emerging animal and zoonotic diseases and increasing international trade have resulted in an increased demand for veterinary surveillance systems. However, human and financial resources available to support government veterinary services are becoming more and more limited in many countries world-wide. Intuitively, issues that present higher risks merit higher priority for surveillance resources as investments will yield higher benefit-cost ratios. The rapid rate of acceptance of this core concept of risk-based surveillance has outpaced the development of its theoretical and practical bases. DISCUSSION: The principal objectives of risk-based veterinary surveillance are to identify surveillance needs to protect the health of livestock and consumers, to set priorities, and to allocate resources effectively and efficiently. An important goal is to achieve a higher benefit-cost ratio with existing or reduced resources. We propose to define risk-based surveillance systems as those that apply risk assessment methods in different steps of traditional surveillance design for early detection and management of diseases or hazards. In risk-based designs, public health, economic and trade consequences of diseases play an important role in selection of diseases or hazards. Furthermore, certain strata of the population of interest have a higher probability to be sampled for detection of diseases or hazards. Evaluation of risk-based surveillance systems shall prove that the efficacy of risk-based systems is equal or higher than traditional systems; however, the efficiency (benefit-cost ratio) shall be higher in risk-based surveillance systems. SUMMARY: Risk-based surveillance considerations are useful to support both strategic and operational decision making. This article highlights applications of risk-based surveillance systems in the veterinary field including food safety. Examples are provided for risk-based hazard selection, risk-based selection of sampling strata as well as sample size calculation based on risk considerations

A comprehensive score reflecting memory-related fMRI activations and deactivations as potential biomarker for neurocognitive aging

Older adults and particularly those at risk for developing dementia typically show a decline in episodic memory performance, which has been associated with altered memory network activity detectable via functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). To quantify the degree of these alterations, a score has been developed as a putative imaging biomarker for successful aging in memory for older adults (Functional Activity Deviations during Encoding, FADE; Düzel et al., Hippocampus, 2011; 21: 803–814). Here, we introduce and validate a more comprehensive version of the FADE score, termed FADE-SAME (Similarity of Activations during Memory Encoding), which differs from the original FADE score by considering not only activations but also deactivations in fMRI contrasts of stimulus novelty and successful encoding, and by taking into account the variance of young adults' activations. We computed both scores for novelty and subsequent memory contrasts in a cohort of 217 healthy adults, including 106 young and 111 older participants, as well as a replication cohort of 117 young subjects. We further tested the stability and generalizability of both scores by controlling for different MR scanners and gender, as well as by using different data sets of young adults as reference samples. Both scores showed robust agegroup-related differences for the subsequent memory contrast, and the FADE-SAME score additionally exhibited age-group-related differences for the novelty contrast. Furthermore, both scores correlate with behavioral measures of cognitive aging, namely memory performance. Taken together, our results suggest that single-value scores of memory-related fMRI responses may constitute promising biomarkers for quantifying neurocognitive aging